Academy Award Predictions

I know I have been posting a lot about award shows, but tis the season.  Once the Academy Awards have happened, things will slow down on the awards front, but here are my predictions.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-x (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
The Help 
Hugo
Midnight in Paris 
Moneyball
The Tree of Life 
War Horse


7 out 9-But I only predicted 8


Best Actor
George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardin-The Artist 
Michael Fassbender-Shame x (Damien Bichir-A Better Life)
Gary Oldman-Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball


4 out 5 


Best Actress
Viola Davis-The Help
Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady 
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk about Kevin x (Glen Close Albert Nobbs)
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn


4 out 5


Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Brannagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive x (Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Christopher Plummer-Beginners


4 out of 5


Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessice Chasstain-The Help 
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer-The Help


5 for 5 


Best Director 
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
David Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanivicius -The Artist 
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Martin Scorsese-Hugo 


4 out of 5 


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help x - (Ides of March)
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 


4 out 5 


Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Beginners x (Margin Call) 
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris 
A Separation


4 out 5 


Best Art Direction
The Artist 
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy x (Midnight in Paris)
War Horse


4 out 5 


Cinematography
The Artist 
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo 
The Tree of Life 
War Horse


5 for 5!


Best Costume Design
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 x (Anonymous)
The Help x (W.E.)
Hugo
Jane Eyre


3 out 5 


Editing 
The Artist 
The Help x (The Descendants) 
Hugo 
Moneyball 
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo


4 out 5 


Best Original Score
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo x (The Adventures of Tin Tin)
Hugo
War Horse
W.E. x (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)


3 out 5 


Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol  x (Real Steel)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes 
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon


4 out of 5 


Nomination Tally (Top Totals)
The Artist with 11 (Actual total is 10)
Hugo with 11 (Spot on!)
The Help with 8 (only 4 nominations -severely under performed)


60 Out of 74 (81 Percent)

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The Artist Inches Closer to Winning Best Picture with a win at the Producer's Guild

Tonight Hollywood made a declaration, the declaration was one of silence.  The silent film The Artist was named the best theatrical feature by the Producer's Guild of America (PGA). In the 22 year history of the award  15 of those winning films went on to win Best Picture.  The Artist winning this award tonight proves to provide it with some pretty good odds as the Academy Awards draw nearer.  The interesting thing about the more recent years is that from 2000 to the present four films did not match up (Moulin Rouge,The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, and Little Miss Sunshine).  This Guild has however matched exactly since 2007.  I think The Artist is going to win this award easily this year.  I will say the film's name is not engraved on the statue, heck the nominations have not even been announced, but I predict it will do well.

Listed Below is the list of winners in the film and television categories:

Theatrical Feature: The Artist

Animated Feature: The Adventures of Tintin

TV Drama: Boardwalk Empire

TV Longform: Downton Abbey

TV Comedy: Modern Family

TV News: 60 Minutes

TV Sports: ESPN’s 30 for 30

TV Variety: The Colbert Report

TV Documentary: American Masters

TV Reality: The Amazing Race

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Movies that Put Life into Perspective: Mean Girls Edition

Last night I went with my friends to see a Midnight showing of the 2004 film Mean Girls at the Coolidge Corner Theater.  I have to say even though I own the film on DVD, watching the film on the big screen was an amazing feeling.  I did not see Mean Girls in theaters, but this was a chance for me to make up for that mistake.

While watching the film I thought about two things, well three. The first two had to deal with the quality of the film.  Tina Fey is a great writer, and I would love to see her write more films.  The dialogue is sharp and witty, and this is one of the most quotable films of the 2000s.  Rachel McAdams is brilliant as the evil teenage bully Regina George.  If this film were not part of that traditional high school/young adult genre her performance would been taken more seriously and she could/should have contended for the Best Supporting Actress category at film award shows that year.  This movie also made me think about my own high school experience, and if we actually ever escape the damaging world of high school when we grow up?

My high school experience was pretty different from Cady Herron.  I went to an all boy's military Christian high school in upstate New York.  The only similarities that existed between my high school and the one in the film were that the boys gossiped just as much as the girls in the film did, and there were a lot of bullies who thought they were hot shit.  The guys who were big men on campus were not known as the plastics though.  My high school had a lot of close minded individuals who felt as though they winners just because they played a sport, it was all boys high school, of course "masculinity" took over.

Sometimes I looks back on my high schools days and wish I had a more typical public school education.  I probably would have come out earlier, and been more comfortable with myself.  I think about this issue all of the time.  When I was in high school coming out was still pretty taboo, sure Ellen had come out, and there was Will and Grace, but there were still a lot of teenagers in the closet at the time, so I do not know if a different high school would have changed anything.  I also met some great friends in high school who were there for me, and still are no matter what.  I value my non traditional high school in some aspects.  I actually met a guy there who was my first, ironically.

I often leave the world of high school behind.  At the end of Mean Girls, like in any film, things are tied up in nice little bow.  Cady learns her lesson, Regina becomes a jock, and people start to realize that although they may have differences, they can work through them and accept people who are different.  I wish this happened more.  I think sometimes forget to leave the petty days of high school behind, and many people bring this to college (if they attend), and sometimes while in college they grow, but many people still do not learn.  The same happens when people go to work, they bring petty high school baggage with them.

This is a great film, and provides a lot of great context that made me think about my own high school experience.  I have a lot of conflicting emotions about high school, mainly because of gay identity.  There was nothing there for, and there is still nothing there for people who have questioned their orientation.  While I realize the school is Christian, the Christian thing to do would be to reach out and help people who are struggling.

I digress. Mean Girls, is one clever film, that has become a must watch film about high school. I love this film, it's just fetch, but I guess I should stop trying to make fetch happen.

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10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5? How Many Best Picture Nominees Will There Be?

The Academy Awards have had changed the number of nominees for their Best Picture Award throughout its history. 1927/28 had three nominees.  From 1929-1931 there were five nominees.  From 1932-1943 there were ten nominees.  The most consistent period of time was 1944-2008 where the Academy went back to five nominees.  2009 and 2010 both went back to the 10 nominees.  This year based on the the new rules listed below there is no set specific number of nominees.

New Rules for Best Picture nominees

1. A Reminder List of all eligible motion pictures shall be sent with a nominations ballot to all active and life members of the Academy who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five pictures.


2. The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.

3. The individual(s) who shall be credited for Academy Award purposes must have screen credit of “producer” or “produced by.” Persons with screen credits of executive producer, co-producer, associate producer, line producer, produced in association with or any other credit shall not receive nominations or Academy statuettes. The nominees will be those three or fewer producers who have performed the major portion of the producing functions. The Producers Branch Executive Committee will designate the qualifying producer nominees for each of the nominated pictures. The committee has the right, in what it determines to be a rare and extraordinary circumstance, to name any additional qualified producer as a nominee.

4. Final voting for the Best Picture award shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.

The key piece of information listed above is in section 2 which states that a Best Picture nominee must have five percent of the total votes cast.  This means that when Academy Award members are voting a film with a significant number of number one votes will get a Best Picture nomination.  Sounds overly complicated!  You are probably asking why not set a specific number?  I like the variable, but I think this just creates inconsistency.

So how many nominees will their be, and what will they be?  Two films are a lock, The Artist and The Descendants, which each won Best Film at The Golden Globes.  Hugo, The Help, and Midnight in Paris are also locks, they have a lot of support from the Globes, and the guild awards.  This makes five.  The next question is will their be more?  Dave Karger from Entertainment Weekly has stated he thinks there will be only five.  While I appreciate his rationale, I think he is incorrect about the number.  The number five is out!

What other films have a shot at the Best Picture nomination? Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and War Horse.  Let's start with ten nominees and work back to the five to figure out the most likely scenario.  With Eleven options, and potentially The Tree of Life as as twelfth, what would the ten nominees be?  This is the simplest scenario to predict.

10 nominees
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse

Predicting the the tenth nominee is the toughest thing to do.  I would say the weakest films are Bridesmaids, The Ides of March, and War Horse.  Bridesmaids has a lot of guild support, and War Horse has the second most.  I would say the tenth nominee is between Ides and Tinker.  Ides is more traditional fair while Tinke did impressively at BAFTA.

9 nominees


The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help 
Hugo
Midnight in Paris 
Moneyball
War Horse



8 nominees

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help 
Hugo
Midnight in Paris 
Moneyball
War Horse


7 nominees

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help 
Hugo
Midnight in Paris 
Moneyball


Picking 10 is going to be tough, but when you get down to 6 nominees it's even harder.  What gets eliminated from the 7 is it Moneyball or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?  I am going to take cop out answer and state that there will be no less than seven nominees (if I had to pick I would get rid of Dragon Tattoo.)  My prediction is 8 nominees, and it will be the eight I picked.  I would love to see War Horse get booted off the list, but I do think it will end up as a Best Picture nominee.

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In Memoriam: Etta James

One January 20, 2012 legendary lady of soul Etta James passed away from complications of leukemia.  This woman's voice is one of the most soulful, and she has one of the most recognizable songs of all time "At Last."  While many people will simply remember this crooner for this song, James was so much more, and her blend of soul, R&B, and rock has defined her as one of the most inspirational female vocalists of all time.

The Associated Press stated "Despite the reputation she cultivated, she would always be remembered best for “At Last.” The jazz-inflected rendition wasn’t the original, but it would become the most famous and the song that would define her as a legendary singer. Over the decades, brides used it as their song down the aisle and car companies to hawk their wares, and it filtered from one generation to the next through its inclusion in movies like “American Pie.” Perhaps most famously, President Obama and the first lady danced to a version at his inauguration ball."  James is a timless presence in the world of entertainment, and she has influenced many vocalist today.

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BAFTA Award Nominations Highlight The Artist, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Hugo

Today the British Academy of Film Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominations.  BAFTA is the UK's version of the Academy Awards. These awards typically help give a good perspective on the Academy Awards.  


British films/actors typically are always given nominations, and these nominations do not always follow to the Oscars, like Judi Dench's nomination for My Week with Marilyn, which is a throw away nomination.  Meanwhile BAFTA also picks some pretty great surprises with Brit Lynne Ramsey nominated for Best Director for We Need to Talk About Kevin.


Two films received a major boost here, Drive, and Tinker Tailor  Soldier Spy.  Spy has the second most nominations with 11 including Best Picture.  Meanwhile Drive garnered 4 nominations, including the Best Picture race too.


The Artist has solidified its front runner status with a total of 12 nominations.  Meanwhile The Descendants which won at the Globes only received 3 nominations setting this film back a bit.  The other big surprise in the world of frontrunners is that Hugo received 9 nominations and no Best Picture nomination.  Hugo is still a serious threat but this weakens its chances. At the middle ground My Week with Marilyn (a British film) received 6 nominations The Help had 5, and War Horse had 5 nominations.


This award show tends to have an impact or helps to predict the winners, it can also help predict some surprise nominations because many of the members of the Academy are British.  Here is the complete list of nominations:

BEST FILM

• THE ARTIST – Thomas Langmann
• THE DESCENDANTS – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
• DRIVE – Marc Platt, Adam Siegel
• THE HELP – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo

DIRECTOR

• THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
• DRIVE Nicolas – Winding Refn
• HUGO – Martin Scorsese
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tomas Alfredson
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay

LEADING ACTOR

• BRAD PITT – Moneyball
• GARY OLDMAN – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• GEORGE CLOONEY – The Descendants
• JEAN DUJARDIN – The Artist
• MICHAEL FASSBENDER – Shame

LEADING ACTRESS

• BÉRÉNICE BEJO The Artist – Film
• MERYL STREEP – The Iron Lady
• MICHELLE WILLIAMS – My Week with Marilyn
• TILDA SWINTON – We Need to Talk About Kevin
• VIOLA DAVIS – The Help

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER – Beginners
• JIM BROADBENT – The Iron Lady
• JONAH HILL – Moneyball
• KENNETH BRANAGH – My Week with Marilyn
• PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – The Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• CAREY MULLIGAN – Drive
• JESSICA CHASTAIN – The Help
• JUDI DENCH – My Week with Marilyn
• MELISSA MCCARTHY – Bridesmaids
• OCTAVIA SPENCER – The Help

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Simon Curtis, David Parfitt, Harvey Weinstein, Adrian Hodges
• SENNA – Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Manish Pandey
• SHAME – Steve McQueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Abi Morgan
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – _Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay, Luc Roeg, Jennifer Fox, Robert Salerno, Rory Stewart Kinnear

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

• ATTACK THE BLOCK – Joe Cornish (Director/Writer)
• BLACK POND – Will Sharpe (Director/Writer), Tom Kingsley (Director), Sarah Brocklehurst (Producer)
• CORIOLANUS – Ralph Fiennes (Director)
• SUBMARINE – Richard Ayoade (Director/Writer)
• TYRANNOSAUR – Paddy Considine (Director), Diarmid Scrimshaw (Producer)

DOCUMENTARY

• GEORGE HARRISON: LIVING IN THE MATERIAL WORLD – Martin Scorsese
• PROJECT NIM – James Marsh, Simon Chinn
• SENNA – Asif Kapadia

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
• BRIDESMAIDS – Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig
• THE GUARD – John Michael McDonagh
• THE IRON LADY – Abi Morgan
• MIDNIGHT IN PARIS – Woody Allen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• THE DESCENDANTS – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
• THE HELP – Tate Taylor
• THE IDES OF MARCH – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
• MONEYBALL – Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• INCENDIES – Denis Villeneuve, Luc Déry, Kim McGraw
• PINA – Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
• POTICHE – François Ozon, Eric Altmayer, Nicolas Altmayer
• A SEPARATION – Asghar Farhadi
• THE SKIN I LIVE IN – Pedro Almodóvar, Agustin Almodóvar

ANIMATED FILM

• HE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Steven Spielberg
• ARTHUR CHRISTMAS – Sarah Smith
• RANGO – Gore Verbinski

ORIGINAL MUSIC

• THE ARTIST – Ludovic Bource
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
• HUGO Howard – Shore
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Alberto Iglesias
• WAR HORSE – John Williams

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• THE ARTIST – Guillaume Schiffman
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Jeff Cronenweth
• HUGO – Robert Richardson
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Hoyte van Hoytema
• WAR HORSE – Janusz Kaminski

EDITING

• THE ARTIST – Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
• DRIVE – Mat Newman
• HUGO – Thelma Schoonmaker
• SENNA – Gregers Sall, Chris King
• TINKER TAILOR SOLIDER – SPY Dino Jonsater

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• THE ARTIST – Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan
• HUGO – Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana MacDonald
• WAR HORSE – Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN

• THE ARTIST – Mark Bridges
• HUGO – Sandy Powell
• JANE EYRE – Michael O’Connor
• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jill Taylor
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Jacqueline Durran

SOUND

• THE ARTIST – Nadine Muse, Gérard Lamps, Michael Krikorian
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – James Mather, Stuart Wilson, Stuart Hilliker, Mike Dowson, Adam Scrivener
• HUGO – Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – John Casali, Howard Bargroff, Doug Cooper, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley
• WAR HORSE – Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Richard Hymns

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

• THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Joe Letteri
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler, David Vickery
• HUGO – Rob Legato, Ben Grossman, Joss Williams
• RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White
• WAR HORSE – Ben Morris, Neil Corbould

MAKE UP & HAIR

• THE ARTIST – Julie Hewett, Cydney Cornell
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin
• HUGO Morag – Ross, Jan Archibald
• THE IRON LADY – Marese Langan
• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jenny Shircore

SHORT ANIMATION

• ABUELAS – Afarin Eghbal, Kasia Malipan, Francesca Gardiner
• BOBBY YEAH – Robert Morgan
• A MORNING STROLL – Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe

SHORT FILM

• CHALK – Martina Amati, Gavin Emerson, James Bolton, Ilaria Bernardini
• MWANSA THE GREAT – Rungano Nyoni, Gabriel Gauchet
• ONLY SOUND REMAINS – Arash Ashtiani, Anshu Poddar
• PITCH BLACK HEIST – John Maclean, Gerardine O’Flynn
• TWO AND TWO – Babak Anvari, Kit Fraser, Gavin Cullen

ORANGE WEDNESDAYS RISING STAR AWARD

• ADAM DEACON
• CHRIS HEMSWORTH
• TOM HIDDLESTON
• CHRIS O’DOWD
• EDDIE REDMAYNE

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The Iron Lady Shows a Woman Strong her Beliefs While the Film Shows a Female Director and Writer who are not Strong Enough to Tackle this Material

The Iron Lady (1 1/2 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by Phyllida Lloyd (Mamma Mia!)

Written by Abi Morgan (Shame, Brick Lane)

Starring Meryl Streep and Jim Broadbent

As I was walking out of the theater one woman stated "This was like The King's Speech" meets The Notebook."  In the simplest terms the girl was close to being correct, the only difference is both of those films are much better than Lady, and that the combination of these two elements made one bad film.

The film starts with Thatcher going to to buy milk at grocery store in her post Prime Minister days.  The ironic part is that no one in the store recognizes her and considers her to just be some old lady.  Margaret Thatcher was so much more.  The film shows Thatcher as she has grown old and her mind has started to go.  The film shows her senility as she talks to her deceased husband, and while doing so she remembers moments from her past.  The memories start with a young Margaret Thatcher during World War II and progress from a woman who would not remain silent, stood up for gender, her political party, fought to become Prime Minister, and did all of these things because of her belief in the ideals she had, not her own personal feelings; she would say feelings are the problem with this generation.

The same thing can be said for this film, no one used a coherent thought process while creating this film.  Phyllida Lloyd who directed the train wreck Mamma Mia, took the helm and attempted to direct this serious bio-pic; her attempt was valid, but she failed.  This film had Lloyd's stylistic ploys written all over the film.  The prime example was during the montage when Thatcher was doing well as the Prime Minister and she was dancing with Reagan etc. this just looked tacky.  Morgan's screenplay is not safe here either; she jumped all over the place, and while had a good sense of Thatcher's convictions I felt as thought there were pieces missing, or if they had focused on certain aspects of her tenure the film would have been much better.  I want to know about Thatcher's relationship with her son, I understand it was strained, but why?  The film never explains that, and it does not show enough about her younger days either.  I wanted a rounder portrait of this woman.

The only thing that saved this film was Streep's performance.  Streep is great in the role and capture the mannerisms and qualities of Thatcher impeccably.  While Streep is good in the role, I can't help but feel as though the performance strays more into being an impersonation than acting in certain moments.  I also think the the quality of the film drags her down further.  While Streep tries to give a complete picture of this woman and her politics, the people behind the scenes did not.

Thatcher was a true conservative woman and the film did not explore this concept enough for fear that it would isolate leftist audience members.  I myself welcome an open and honest portrayal of the woman who believed in more than a flat tax.  Sure the film delves slightly into her opposition of the unions, and wanting to defend the Empire during the crisis in the Falkland Islands, but like as I have stated this hallow film just did not do much to make me feel as though this was a lazy take on this interesting woman's life.

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